PLAYERS WHO MAY PLAY THEIR 3RD GAME THIS WEEKEND- ROUND 14

Looking for a quick trade to a player who's last chance to grab them before a price change may be this weekend? Then here is a list of all players who have played 2 games so far in season 2007, and should they play this weekend, will either depreciate or appreciate in value for the first time. There may from time to time be some bargains in this lot, but looking at the players below, you may have to wait for the next crop.

Ryan Ferguson (MEL) 14.5
Fabian Deluca (PTA) 14.5
Brad Howard (STK) 16
Lachlan Hansen (KAN) 21
Chris Schmidt (BRL) 22.5
Albert Proud (BRL) 26
Barry Brooks (STK) 26
Matt Riggio (KAN) 26
Rhan Hooper (BRL) 27
Ryan Murphy (FRE) 28
Leigh Adams (KAN) 28.5
Adam Cockshell (PTA) 31.5
Jarred Moore (SYD) 32.5
Kieran Jack (SYD) 35
Malcolm Lynch (WBD) 35.5
Luke Vogels (SYD) 36.5
Andrew McDougall (WBD) 37
Justin Longmuir (FRE) 38
Travis Boak (PTA) 38.5
Danny Stanley (COL) 39.5
Adam Hartlett (CAR) 41.5
Matthew Warnock (MEL) 45
David Trotter (KAN) 47.5
Steven King (GEE) 50
Mark Nicoski (WCE) 50
Kepler Bradley (ESS) 53.5
Eddie Sansbury (KAN) 54.5
Tim Clarke (HAW) 58
Charlie Gardiner (GEE) 62.5
Kris Massie (ADE) 73.5
Martin Clarke (COL) 82.5
Nathan G. Brown (RIC) 103.5

NB. Players in bold are of most interest for DT coaches

DEBUTANTS- ROUND 13

For those on the look out for a potential cheapie who may get a few games between now and the end of the year, following is a list of debutants from last weekend's action along with their DT score.

Michael Newton (MEL) 51
Ben Reid (COL) 42
Matthew Laidlaw (SYD) 38
Daniel Dzufer (BRL) 33

BACKS- ROUND 14

Time to take a look at the backs up to and including Round 13
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price

Andrew Carrazzo (CAR)
$388,600
Tarkyn Lockyer (COL)
$366,800
Josh Drummond (BRL)
$360,600
Joel Bowden (RIC)
$351,000
Chad Cornes (PTA)
$350,000
______________________________________

Top 5 by Average

Tarkyn Lockyer (COL)
103.85
Josh Drummond (BRL)
103.17
Andrew Carrazzo (CAR)
97.54
Chad Cornes (PTA)
97.38
Dustin Fletcher (ESS)
90.77
______________________________________

Top 5 by Average for Last 3 Rounds

Josh Drummond (BRL)
111.33
Andrew Carrazzo (CAR)
103.33
Brian Harris (WBD)
100.33
Joel Bowden (RIC)
94.33
Chad Cornes (PTA)
93.66

______________________________________
Below is not based on stats, rather my opinion on who I believe might be good pick-up’s within the various price bands given their form and current value. They are listed in no particular order.
______________________________________


Top 5 by Price Range ($0 to $100k)

Simon Prestigiacomo (COLL)
$97,100
Will Thursfield (RIC)
$90,000
Albert Proud (BRL)
$82,300
Adam Hartlett (CAR)
$82,300
Daniel Dzufer (BRL)
$69,600
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($100k to $200k)

Tom Harley (GEE)
$195,600
Sam Power (WBD)
$191,400
Jesse W. Smith (KAN)
$189,800
Raphael Clarke (STK)
$166,300
Scott McMahon (KAN)
$113,900
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($200k to $300k)

Darren Milburn (GEE)
$296,000
Andrew McLeod (ADE)
$272,500
Heath Shaw (COL)
$265,000
Grant Birchall (HAW)
$263,700
Jordan McMahon (WBD)
$232,300
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($300k to $350k)

Chad Cornes (PTA)
$350,000
Jess Sinclair (KAN)
$330,600
Adam McPhee (ESS)
$313,100
Beau Waters (WCE)
$312,700
Lindsay Gilbee (WBD)
$304,000
______________________________________

Top 3 by Price Range ($350k+)

Andrew Carrazzo (CAR)
$388,600
Tarkyn Lockyer (COL)
$366,800
Chad Cornes (PTA)
$360,600
______________________________________

Top 3 Rookies ($69.6k and $82.3k)

Albert Proud (BRL)
$82,300
Adam Hartlett (CAR)
$82,300
Daniel Dzufer (BRL)
$69,600
______________________________________

Top 5 Players to Watch in Coming Rounds

Chad Cornes (PTA)
$350,000
Adam McPhee (ESS)
$313,100
Heath Shaw (COL)
$265,000
Scott McMahon (KAN)
$113,900
Adam Hartlett (CAR)
$82,300
______________________________________

CAPTAIN SELECTION- ROUND 13

Having difficulty deciding on a captain? About ready to get out the dartboard? Then don't despair. Each week i will attempt to make your decision a little easier. While my main philosophy on picking a captain each week is to pick a 'GUN' at the start of the year and stick with them through thick and thin (obviously barring injury), some may wish to try and gamble a little on who they think may lift for the game ahead, therefore below I have provided some info on each player as listed in the AFL Dream Team 'GUNS' post from earlier.

Your captain selection should probably come from this list.


Jimmy Bartel vs Sydney @ Skilled Stadium

Overall Avg. vs SYD- 83.4
Avg. L3 vs SYD- 82.0
Avg. L3 @ SS- 124.0

Weather: A Few Showers. Min 7 Max 13
Game Info: Saturday 2:10pm


Chris Judd (out injured)


Chad Cornes vs Brisbane @ GABBA

Overall Avg. vs BRL- 64.3
Avg. L3 vs BRL- 91.7
Avg. L3 @ GABBA- 89.7

Weather: Fine. Min 10 Max 20
Game Info: Saturday 7:10pm


Tarkyn Lockyer vs Hawthorn @ Telstra Dome

Overall Avg. vs HAW- 58.5
Avg. L3 vs HAW- 57.0
Avg. L3 @ TD- 90.7

Weather: At Telstra Dome
Game Info: Sunday 5:10pm


Andrew Carrazzo vs Fremantle @ Subiaco

Overall Avg. vs FRE- 93.0
Avg. L3 vs FRE- 97.0
Avg. L3 @ Subiaco- 60.0

Weather: Showers Easing Later. Min 11 Max 19
Game Info: Saturday 2:10pm


Heath Shaw vs Hawthorn @ Telstra Dome

Overall Avg. vs HAW- 79.0
Avg. L3 vs HAW- 79.0 (Only played twice against Hawthorn)
Avg. L3 @ TD- 72.0

Weather: At Telstra Dome
Game Info: Sunday 5:10pm


Kane Cornes vs Brisbane @ GABBA

Overall Avg. vs BRL- 71.5
Avg. L3 vs BRL- 94.0
Avg. L3 @ GABBA- 87.3

Weather: Fine. Min 10 Max 20
Game Info: Saturday 7:10pm


Scott West vs Kangaroos @ MCG

Overall Avg. vs KAN- 78.6
Avg. L3 vs KAN- 78.3
Avg. L3 @ MCG- 139.0

Weather: A Few Showers. Min 7 Max 13
Game Info: Sunday 2:10pm


Dane Swan vs HAW @ Telstra Dome

Overall Avg. vs HAW- 74.8
Avg. L3 vs HAW- 84.7
Avg. L3 @ TD- 82.0

Weather: At Telstra Dome
Game Info: Sunday 5:10pm


Cameron Bruce vs Essendon @ Telstra Dome

Overall Avg. vs ESS- 73.0
Avg. L3 vs ESS- 81.3
Avg. L3 @ TD- 84.0

Weather: At Telstra Dome
Game Info: Friday 7:40pm


Heath Scotland vs Fremantle @ Subiaco

Overall Avg. vs FRE- 81.7
Avg. L3 vs FRE- 103.3
Avg. L3 @ Subiaco- 91.7

Weather: Showers Easing Later. Min 11 Max 19
Game Info: Saturday 2:10pm


Dean Cox vs Adelaide @ AAMI Stadium

Overall Avg. vs ADE- 78.8
Avg. L3 vs ADE- 120.0
Avg. L3 @ AAMI- 109.3

Weather: Showers, Chiefly Morning. Min 6 Max 15
Game Info: Sunday 12:40pm


Jeff White vs Essendon @ Telstra Dome

Overall Avg. vs ESS- 70.6
Avg. L3 vs ESS- 96.3
Avg. L3 @ TD- 108.3

Weather: At Telstra Dome
Game Info: Sunday 5:10pm


Brad Johnson vs Kangaroos @ MCG

Overall Avg. vs KAN- 84.8
Avg. L3 vs KAN- 86.3
Avg. L3 @ MCG- 99.0

Weather: A Few Showers. Min 7 Max 13
Game Info: Sunday 2:10pm


Matthew Pavlich vs Carlton @ Subiaco

Overall Avg. vs CAR- 91.6
Avg. L3 vs CAR- 98.7
Avg. L3 @ Subiaco- 89.7

Weather: Showers Easing Later. Min 11 Max 19
Game Info: Saturday 2:10pm


Paul Chapman vs Sydney @ Skilled Stadium

Overall Avg. vs SYD- 72.5
Avg. L3 vs SYD- 103.0
Avg. L3 @ SS- 103.7

Weather: A Few Showers. Min 7 Max 13
Game Info: Saturday 2:10pm


Gary Ablett Jr. vs Sydney @ Skilled Stadium

Overall Avg. vs SYD- 66.5
Avg. L3 vs SYD- 63.3
Avg. L3 @ SS- 110.7

Weather: A Few Showers. Min 7 Max 13
Game Info: Saturday 2:10pm



Obviously the default Jimmy Bartel skipper selection may be in jeopardy this week given the Cats play the Swans, and with Chris Judd ruled out for the weekend's clash, the race is wide open for many coaches when picking their captain this week.

Based on the above data I would say the better captain selections this week may come from the ruck duo in Dean Cox and Jeff White as well as the ever reliable Matthew Pavlich against the Blues.

Good luck selecting your captain and remember this is possibly the biggest influence a coach can have on a team from week to week, so choose carefully.

FORWARDS- ROUND 13

Time to take a look at the forwards up to Round 12
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price

Nathan Buckley (COL)
$390,700
Matthew Pavlich (FRE)
$385,800
Brad Johnson (WBD)
$384,800
James Hird (ESS)
$368,500
Nick Riewoldt (STK)
$359,900
______________________________________

Top 5 by Average

Brad Johnson (WBD)
104.50
Matthew Pavlich (FRE)
98.42
Gary Ablett Jr (GEE)
95.92
James Hird (ESS)
95.17
Chad Cornes (PTA)
94.75
______________________________________

Top 5 by Average for Last 3 Rounds

Matthew Pavlich (FRE)
120.67
Brad Johnson (WBD)
115.67
Gary Ablett Jr (GEE)
107.33
Steve Johnson (GEE)
95.67
Matthew Richardson (RIC)
94.33


______________________________________

Below is not based on stats, rather my opinion on who I believe might be good pick-up’s within the various price bands given their form and current value. They are listed in no particular order.
______________________________________


Top 5 by Price Range ($0 to $100k)

Leroy Jetta (ESS)
$99,800
Michael Newton (MEL)
$82,300
Malcolm Lynch (WBD)
$82,300
Clayton Collard (FRE)
$82,300
Jack Riewoldt (RIC)
$82,300
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($100k to $200k)

Warren Tredrea (PTA)
$193,900
Raphael Clarke (STK)
$160,700
Jarrod Harbrow (WBD)
$157,800
Justin Westhoff (PTA)
$132,300
Robert Gray (PTA)
$125,000
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($200k to $300k)

Lance Franklin (HAW)
$260,500
Alan Didak (COL)
$249,800
Barry Hall (SYD)
$245,000
Brendan Fevola (CAR)
$236,500
Nathan G. Brown (RIC)
$235,600
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($300k+)

Brad Johnson (WBD)
$384,800
Paul Chapman (GEE)
$344,100
Matthew Richardson (RIC)
$305,800
Ryan O’Keefe (SYD)
$305,400
Scott Lucas (ESS)
$301,700
______________________________________

Top 3 Rookies ($69.6k and $82.3k)

Malcolm Lynch (WBD)
$82,300
Michael Newton (MEL)
$82,300
Jack Riewoldt (RIC)
$82,300
______________________________________

Top 5 Players to Watch in Coming Rounds

Paul Chapman (GEE)
$344,100
Scott Lucas (ESS)
$301,700
Barry Hall (SYD)
$245,000
Nathan G. Brown (RIC)
$235,600
Warren Tredrea (PTA)
$193,900
______________________________________

DREAM TEAM 'GUNS'

There is a lot of debate about how many ‘GUN’ dream team players one needs in their team to remain competitive. The definition of a ‘GUN’ however, is unclear. To me, a ‘GUN’ dream teamer is a player that maybe, despite struggling and/or playing in a team that’s getting flogged, still has the ability to score 100+ nine times out of 10, even when playing the Sydney Swans in the wet. They may from time to time score a 70-odd, but very rarely (maybe once every year) have a sub-50 score.

Based on this definition, below I have listed who I consider to be guns so far in the 2007 season. As for the number of ‘GUNS’ you need, well this is highly subjective, but a rule of thumb would suggest you need one in each position at least, and potentially two in the centres (one for captain and the other for vice-captain).

BACKS

Chad Cornes

Tarkyn Lockyer

Andrew Carrazzo

Heath Shaw (?)

CENTRES

Jimmy Bartel

Kane Cornes

Scott West

Dane Swan

Cameron Bruce

Heath Scotland

Chris Judd

Daniel Cross

RUCKS

Dean Cox

Jeff White

FORWARDS

Brad Johnson

Matthew Pavlich

Chad Cornes

Paul Chapman

Gary Ablett Jr. (?)

(Note: While Andrew Carrazzo potentially meets the definition of a ‘GUN’ in the backline, I am reluctant to include him as a ‘GUN’ in the centres. This is one area were the definition is a little skewed.)

RUCKS- ROUND 13

Time to take a look at the rucks up to Round 12
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price

Dean Cox (WCE)
$388,700
Jeff White (MEL)
$344,700
Josh Fraser (COL)
$319,500
Troy Simmonds (RIC)
$300,300
Peter Everitt (SYD)
$293,900
______________________________________

Top 5 by Average

Dean Cox (WCE)
99.56
Jeff White (MEL)
91.58
Josh Fraser (COL)
82.67
Hamish McIntosh (KAN)
79.83
Aaron Sandilands (FRE)
78.33
______________________________________

Top 5 by Average for Last 3 Rounds

Dean Cox (WCE)
119.00
Jeff White (MEL)
95.00
Peter Everitt (SYD)
87.00
Jamie Charman (BRL)
85.00
Hamish McIntosh (KAN)
75.33

______________________________________

Below is not based on stats, rather my opinion on who I believe might be good pick-up’s within the various price bands given their form and current value. They are listed in no particular order.
______________________________________


Top 5 by Price Range ($0 to $100k)

Fabian Deluca (PTA)
$98,200
John Meesen (ADE)
$82,300
Todd Goldstein (KAN)
$82,300
Angus Graham (RIC)
$69,600
Sam Jacobs (CAR)
$69,600
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($100k to $200k)

Mark Blake (GEE)
$194,800
Robert Campbell (HAW)
$192,300

Jonathon Griffin (ADE)

$130,500
Robert Warnock (FRE)
$112,000
Chad Jones (WCE)
$104,700
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($200k to $300k)

Brendon Lade (PTA)
$290,200
Hamish McIntosh (KAN)
$281,000
Jamie Charman (BRL)
$282,000
Darren Jolly (SYD)
$236,200
Luke Darcy (WBD)
$207,200
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($300k+)

Dean Cox (WCE)
$388,700
Jeff White (MEL)
$344,700
Josh Fraser (COL)
$319,500
Troy Simmonds (RIC)
$300,300

(Only 4 players are greater than $300k in the ruck division)
______________________________________

Top 3 Rookies ($69.6k and $82.3k)

John Meesen (ADE)
$82,300
Angus Graham (RIC)
$69,600
Sam Jacobs (CAR)
$69,600

______________________________________

Top 5 Players to Watch in Coming Rounds

Jeff White (MEL)
$344,700
Troy Simmonds (RIC)
$300,300
Jamie Charman (BRL)
$282,000
Robert Warnock (FRE)
$112,000
Chad Jones (WCE)
$104,700
______________________________________

109,799

That's the number of current coaches who will be dissapointed that Justin Koschitzke will be missing in action this weekend against Richmond and depending on the severity of his strained hamstring, could miss up to 3-4 weeks. That equates to 49.58% of all AFL Dream Team coaches, so don't be too concerned as you are not in the minority.

Now the two most popular players in the AFL Dream Team competition could potentially be out for extended periods. Will certainly test the depth of some squads and highlights the importance of having a solid playing emergency in each position.

121,640

That's the number of current coaches who will be dissapointed that Chris Judd will be missing in action this weekend against Adelaide and potentially (looks highly likely) the week after with a torn abductor muscle. That equates to 54.92% of all AFL Dream Team coaches, so don't be too concerned as you are not in the minority.

CENTRES- ROUND 13

Time to take a look at the centres up to Round 12
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price

James Bartel (GEE)
$455,600
Kane Cornes (PTA)
$429,900
Matthew Priddis (WCE)
$402,100
Andrew Carrazzo (CAR)
$392,400
Nathan Buckley (COL)
$390,700
______________________________________

Top 5 by Average

James Bartel (GEE)
119.58
Kane Cornes (PTA)
108.83
Scott West (WBD)
103.42
Dane Swan (COL)
102.17
Cameron Bruce (MEL)
101.25
______________________________________

Top 5 by Average for Last 3 Rounds

James Bartel (GEE)
132.00
Andrew Carrazzo (CAR)
122.33
Matthew Priddis (WCE)
121.00
Kane Cornes (PTA)
117.00
Peter Bell (FRE)
118.67

______________________________________

Below is not based on stats, rather my opinion on who I believe might be good pick-up’s within the various price bands given their form and current value. They are listed in no particular order.
______________________________________


Top 5 by Price Range ($0 to $100k)

David Armitage (STK)
$95,600
Ross Young (CAR)
$91,900
Martin Clarke (COLL)
$69,600
Leigh Adams (KAN)
$69,600
Kieran Jack (SYD)
$69,600
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($100k to $200k)

Shaun Higgins (WBD)
$199,300
Tim Schmidt (SYD)
$184,500
Tyson Goldsack (COL)
$118,000
Travis Boak (PTA)
$103,300
Andrew Browne (FRE)
$100,500
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($200k to $300k)

Michael Braun (WCE)
$297,600
Nick Dal Santo (STK)
$297,400
Adam Goodes (SYD)
$280,700
Matthew Carr (FRE)
$230,300
Chris Hyde (RIC)
$228,400
______________________________________

Top 5 by Price Range ($300k to $350k)

Nigel Lappin (BRL)
$338,000
Brock McLean (MEL)
$328,000
Cameron Ling (GEE)
$311,700
Brent Harvey (KAN)
$304,500
Shane Crawford (HAW)
$302,000

(A lot of good value in this range. Also look for Goodwin, Hayes, Thompson, Hodge & Simpson)______________________________________

Top 3 by Price Range ($350k+)

James Bartel (GEE)
$455,600
Kane Cornes (PTA)
$429,900
Scott West (WBD)
$359,600
______________________________________

Top 3 Rookies ($69.6k and $82.3k)

Martin Clarke (COLL)
$69,600
Kieran Jack (SYD)
$69,600
Leigh Adams (KAN)
$69,600
______________________________________

Top 5 Players to Watch in Coming Rounds

Scott West (WBD)
$359,600
Nigel Lappin (BRL)
$338,000
Nick Dal Santo (STK)
$297,400
Adam Goodes (SYD)
$280,700
Martin Clarke (COLL)
$69,600
______________________________________